As Biden's Strategy Becomes Clearer, President Tsai Will Rely More Heavily on U.S.
United Daily News, October 28, 2021
“Taiwan’s only option is to make itself stronger, more united, and more determined to defend itself. It is not our option to do nothing but rely only on the protection of others.” This was made by President Tsai Ing-wen to the Central Standing Committee of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 18.
“Taiwan will defend itself as much as possible, but let me reiterate that it is important that we have support from allies and countries with similar ideas.” This was delivered in an exclusive interview by CNN on October 26. President Tsai made it clear that she is “really confident” that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a mainland Chinese attack on Taiwan.
From August 18 to October 26, President Tsai’s attitude towards Taiwan’s security changed from “depending on others is not an option” to “the important thing is that the United States defends Taiwan.” Of course, the two are not completely contradictory, but the center of gravity has lopsided.
The key to the change should be the two talks of President Joe Biden of the United States on defending Taiwan.
On August 18, President Biden emphasized that if anyone were to invade or take action against its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, the United States would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with Taiwan. In a CNN interview on October 21, Biden was asked if the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack by China, President Biden replied that the United States has a commitment to do that.
After President Biden broke out 40 some years of U.S. strategic ambiguity on defending Taiwan, President Tsai has also unequivocally confirmed that there are U.S. military personnel in Taiwan for training purposes.
Of course, after President Biden’s two separate remarks, the White House and the Department of State immediately came forward to clarify, as usual, that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan has not changed. Regarding Tsai’s talk, Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng explained to the legislators that U.S. military personnel are here for training purposes and of course they live here, but not the entire force was stationed.
At the end of August, the Ministry of National Defense published “2021 China’s Military Force Report”, which pinpointed seven timings for the mainland’s possible invasion of Taiwan, including foreign military forces stationed in Taiwan. Has U.S. help in military training in Taiwan violated Beijing’s bottom line?
Although this is no news, since last year the United States and Taiwan military have disclosed relevant information intentionally or unintentionally, and the media have successively made relevant reports. However, speaking in the capacity of President, Tsai’s confirmation means much. Minister Chiu made a clarification that the U.S. military does not have troops “stationed in Taiwan,” and only personnel who assist in training “live in Taiwan.”
As for the gradual clarity of American strategy, whether it helps curb mainland China’s intention to use force against Taiwan, or whether it increases the mainlnd’s determination to quickly resolve the Taiwan issue remains to be seen. In addition to the comparison between the United States and China’s military power, it also depends on the will and determination of both sides.
Although President Tsai emphasized in the interview that she has not given up the possibility of improving cross-strait relations and having a dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping to avoid misunderstandings and misjudgments. However, in view of mainland China, as President Tsai is advancing to the “Two-State Theory 2.0” and “holding on U.S. military backing,” cross-strait dialogue is becoming even more out of reach. The tense situation in the Taiwan Strait is only rising but not falling.
Forget Afghanistan! As the U.S. strategy becomes clearer and clearer, Taiwan’s dependence on the United States becomes heavier and more and more unconcealed. Is this the tranquility before the storm?